MinnPost poll: Minnesotans prefer congressional candidate who would be a ‘check’ on Biden; Omar unpopular statewide


WASHINGTON — According to a MinnPost/Embold Research poll, Rep. IlhanOmar, a Minnesota representative, is unpopular. Rep. Betty McCollum, and Sen. Tina Smith have high favorability ratings.

Seventeen percent of respondents to the poll said that they view Omar, D-5th District favorably. 57% stated they view her unfavorably. The difference between favorable and unfavorable percentages is used to calculate a pollster’s net score for politicians. Omar’s negative 30 point gap was the largest among Minnesota politicians included in the poll.

This is a higher unfavorable rating that poll respondents gave to former President Donald Trump. It’s in a state where there hasn’t been a Republican president elected since Richard Nixon was reelected in 1972, and no Republican has won any statewide office in the state since Gov. In 2006, Tim Pawlenty was elected to a second term. Respondents to the poll gave Trump a 35% favorable rating and 57% unfavorable.

This poll gave President Joe Biden a score of -10 percent. Urban respondents, women and college-educated voters scored him the highest. Crosstabs can be found here.

Bad news for Biden: Half of Minnesotans would prefer to vote for someone who would “bea check on Joe Biden’s policies,” and 40% would vote for someone who supports the president’s policies.

From Oct. 10 through Oct. 14, 1,585 Minnesotan voters were surveyed by the MinnPost/Embold Research survey. The margin of error was +/– 2.6 percentage points.

Rep. Brad Finstad (R-1st District), who was elected in August 2012, was the only incumbent not to be included in the poll. Finstad won a special vote to fill the term of Rep. Jim Hagedorn who died in February.

According to the poll, Smith, a Democrat had a net favorability score of +3 points. So did McCollum, D-4th District. The poll revealed a gender gap with McCollum and Smith faring better among women, especially college-educated females. Smith received a negative rating of 10 points from male respondents, while McCollum received a negative rating of 5 points.

Congressional delegation favorability, statewide
Q: What are your opinions about the following public officials?

Notice: The margin of error for the model is +/-2.6 percentage point.
Source: MinnPost/Change Research/Embold Research

According to the poll, Amy Klobuchar, Democratic Senator, received a +2 rating. She is the most well-known member of Minnesota’s congressional delegation. Only 2% of poll respondents had never heard of Klobuchar. He has been a member of the U.S. Senate since 2007, and unsuccessfully ran for the White House in 2020.

Omar was also well-known: Only 5% said they had never heard of her.

Tim Lindberg from the University of Minnesota Morris said that Omar’s high recognition of his name could be a curse.

Lindberg stated that name recognition isn’t good for a U.S. House Member unless she is in a position like Nancy Pelosi. It usually means you have a lot negative attention.

Omar’s popularity ratings in Minnesota were low, but the poll revealed that she is still more popular in her district in Minneapolis. Omar received a -9 favorability rating from respondents who lived in Minneapolis and St. Paul, while Greater Minnesota residents and suburban Twin Cities voters gave Omar -41, -52, and -52, respectively.

Rep. Angie Craig (D-2nd District), who is running in a highly competitive race for reelection had a -2 favorability score. Craig received an 8% favorability rating from women, who made abortion rights a key issue in her campaign. Men gave Craig a -12.

Rep. Dean Phillips, D-3rd district had a +1 favorability score. Phillips is keen to see a new generation in Democratic leadership in Congress and the White House. However, the poll revealed that Phillips has the highest support among likely voters 65 and older.

The poll showed that Minnesota had more Democratic voters than Republicans, and the Republican members of Minnesota’s congressional delegation received unfavorable results.

Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-7th District), was the most unpopular of all GOP lawmakers. She praised Trump’s endorsement. 28 percent of poll respondents had never heard of Fischbach. 33% of those polled said they didn’t like Fischbach and 17% said that they liked her for a -16 rating.

Lindberg stated that she doesn’t know if this is because she’s more ‘Trumpist than’ others or if it’s because she realizes that she can’t do the same amount as (former Rep. Collin. Peterson), who has been in office for many years.”

Fischbach defeated Peterson in 2020. Peterson had been representing the 7 and the districts in Congress for over 30 years. He rose to the top of House Agriculture Committee.

The poll also gave Rep. Tom Emmer (R-6th District) a rating of -10 favorability and Rep. Peter Stauber an rating of -6 favorability. However, 40% of respondents had never heard about Stauber while 27% hadn’t heard of Emmer.

According to the statewide poll, respondents were evenly divided on a generic congressional ballot. 45% said they would vote for a Republican while 45% said they would vote for a Democrat. But, national polls indicate that the GOP is growing in support for generic ballots.

Monday’s Harvard CAPS-Harris survey found that 53% of respondents would vote for a Republican if they had to do so today. 47% said the exact same thing for a Democrat.

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